25 August 2012:
(…..compiled from reports in various newspapers, television and other media including the Economist of UK, and analytical discourses in various discussion forums on internet and elsewhere)
Introduction
The mass exodus from our southern cities by thousands of panicked fellow Indians of the north-eastern region returning to their homes earlier this month has underscored deep social fissures in our country, as also the power of social media and the peril of weak political leadership – according to analysts quoted in the media over the last two weeks.
Hate messages and threats spread on social net-working sites of supposed violence against northeasterners studying or working in major southern cities/States, sparked off fear among tens of thousands of such people – the main cause for this panic that triggered the move for en masse return to their native states.
Intelligence agencies were quick to identify the source of these hate messages with fake and morphed images of torture and mutilation as emanating from Pakistani websites, and the government lost no time in ordering the blocking of these rumour-spreading rogue sites including accounts on facebook and twitter.
Brief backgrounder
Not everyone is aware of the full facts. In brief, on July 6th, a month after an altercation at a mosque in Assam run by (non-Muslim) tribesmen in north-east India, four men on motorcycles shot and killed two Muslims. Six weeks later, some 80 people were killed in communal bloodletting; the army was deployed in Assam with orders to shoot to kill.
It was then that tens of thousands of north-easterners in other parts of India suddenly fled homeward in fear of their lives; India accused Pakistanis of being the origin of doctored video messages designed to stir up religious hatred; and 400,000-500,000 Indians are alleged to be homeless or displaced within Assam, statedly the largest involuntary movement of people inside the country since independence. How on earth did a local conflict, one of many in the area, produce such devastating nationwide consequences?
Analytical summary of events
As per reports in newspapers, television and other media, the spark for the extraordinary sequence of events was the fight in western Assam between indigenous Bodo tribesmen (pronounced Boro) and Bengali-speaking people. The Bodo claim (…a claim vehemently supported by the opposition parties in India's parliament) that the incomers are illegal immigrants from Bangladesh and want them kicked out.
The migrants are mostly Muslim. The Bodo are animist or Christian. It is alleged that Muslim population in the State has grown in the three decades to 2001; this, not necessarily the reason for the latest violence. In some villages now the Bodo are supposed to be a minority. They say they feel swamped by Muslim immigrants.
However, the conflict is not primarily about religion. It is about land. The Bodo hold land in common. The Bengali-speakers are settled farmers, anxious to establish private-property rights as protection against dispossession. In 2003, after a long, violent campaign for autonomy, the Bodo got their own Bodo Territorial Council, on whose turf outsiders may not own property. The Bodo consider all Muslims outsiders—hence the dispute at the mosque.
Assam's conflict has been going on for decades. A massacre in 1983 was far more brutal than this year's violence. Yet until now the dispute, like other insurgencies of the north-east, has had no real impact elsewhere in the country.
This time, there were riots in Mumbai and attacks in nearby Pune on people from Manipur. According to some reports some 30,000 north-easterners fled from Bangalore, nine of them being thrown off a moving train. Governments countered these claims, but HT Sangliana – a north-easterner, but former DGP of Karnataka, former BJP MP from Bangalore, and current Vice-Chairman of the country's Minority Commission – pleaded in an interview on national televion that complaints of mal-treatment of north-easterners should not be ignored by the government; they need to be verified. Amidst the panic, it appeared like some authorities encouraged the exodus by laying on special trains: reportedly 30,000 tickets to Guwahati, Assam's capital, were sold in three days.
The impact of mobile phones with almost everybody today, has made a difference. On August 12th people started getting text messages warning north-easterners to go home before the end of Ramzan (August 20th). They also got video messages with doctored images purporting to show the bodies of Muslims killed in Assam – images that were in fact of victims of Cyclone Nargis in 2008 in Myanmar.
Based on intelligence inputs, Union Home Secretary RK Singh appeared on national television to disclose that the mischievous websites that spread the messages were identified as from Pakistan and Home Minister Shinde asked for the Pakistani government's help in closing them down. Pakistan denied involvement, following which India ordered the blocking of over 250 websites and asked mobile-service providers to restrict the number of SMS messages. Yet the images have gone viral.
The Assam conflict also spread because people elsewhere sought to capitalize on it. Mumbai saw rival protests by a big Muslim organization – the Raza Academy, then a big Hindu one, by the Maharashtra Navnirman Samiti. The opposition (Hindu-nationalist) Bharatiya Janata Party said Assam's problem is illegal immigration from Bangladesh. Tarun Gogoi, the chief Minister of Assam which is ruled by the Congress party, countered bluntly "…there are no Bangladeshis in the clash but Indian citizens." The Assam conflict has not been such partisan fodder before.
What now for possible action:
It may be likely and hoped that these reverberations across the rest of the country will force the Central Government to focus at last on the chronic failings of its policy in the north-east. Linked to the rest of the country only by a "chicken's neck" stretch of land 22km wide, the region has remained isolated, poor and different. Assam, easily the biggest state in the north-east, is one of India's poorest. With a mixture of oriental mongoloid features in various degrees, North-easterners look different: and take offense at being called "Chinky". It is not uncommon though for North-easterners to call the rest of the country "mainland India".
Over the decades since India's independence one of the manifestations of this distinctiveness is the persistence of insurgencies in the region. The Institute for Conflict Management, a think-tank, lists 26 active armed groups in the region, and ten organizations proscribed by India's home ministry. Five of the seven states are troubled by armed separatists. In the early 2000s the death toll was reportedly 1,700 a year.
Dealing with such a region was always going to be hard. Yet successive governments have made things worse. They have attempted to placate insurgent groups by giving them more autonomy. The north-east has 16 such areas, more than the rest of India. But giving each group a place of its own creates restive new minorities within the area—as in Bodoland.
National politicians have also shied away from dealing with illegal migration, partly because the issue is toxic and partly because local politicians like to register newcomers as voters. For a while, Assam even had its own immigration policy, until that was struck down by the Supreme Court. By letting ambiguity about incomers' legal status persist, politicians leave the field open to armed extremists who want to kick all Muslims out.
The report card over the past decades indicates that the successive Central governments have attempted to buy peace. Between 20% and 55% of north-eastern states' GDP comes in fund transfers from the centre—a huge proportion. It keeps their economies going, but turns local governments into client states surrounded by autonomous areas ruled by former insurgents, while armed gangs wage guerrilla campaigns at the margins.
On the other side of the coin, there is reason to believe that there have been some improvements in the region. Fatalities have fallen since 2008, thanks to a deal with Bangladesh which denied some insurgents their former bases. But as is clear from the Bodo conflict, the grievances which produced the insurgencies remain. India's long-term goals in the region are to encourage its integration with the rest of the country, to use the north-east to boost economic ties with South-East Asia, and to check China's influence in Myanmar. At the moment, none of those aims is being advanced.
From a policing perspective…
i) The cause of exodus of residents hailing from NE areas to return home are SMS texts originating from Pakistan. It is indeed shameful to admit/allege that a neighbouring country was able to intrude our communication system and networks. However, we need to revisit the knee-jerk strategy adopted by the Government as immediate remedy to tackle this menace - and examine whether at all the answer really lies in blocking social net-working sites or in harnessing their potential for initiatives and positive propaganda to counter - by beating the enemy using their own stick! We need to be progressive in our approach. Banning a thing comes naturally to us. Our intelligence and understanding of issues will be better appreciated if we can be one up on technology, and harness the same for our greater benefit.
But I pray, while doing so, let us not ride on the Pakistani canard alone - the majority of sites (..over two third) identified for blocking are still non-Pakistani – possibly by Muslims and others in India too. Veteran journalist John Dayal has posted on his facebook page that 20% of these sites were by Hindus. So what in the name of follow up is being done about this? ...and why no hype on this score?
ii) Governmental responses:
(….role of DMs and SPs, the state leaderships in the IAS and IPS, and of political leaders).
That such mischief (…be it by Pakistanis, or others) could be expected, what has amazed all is that everyone sat down to watch this exodus continue without meaningful intervention. In silence it appeared all approved of this movement. Where were the MPs, MLAs in south India, the various CMs, religous leaders and social activists who survive on official doles. They all seem to have gone home to hole up. Where were the DMs and the police chiefs assuring the people to stay back for they will keep them safe. No DM held any press conference to deny rumours. Police chiefs were also absent from streets to prevent the human exit from their districts. Where were the employers of these people to tell them to stay back and promise them protection.
iii) Lessons to be learnt:
The loss of confidence in institutional management of society seemed total. Now we know how in future our new generations will act and our official agencies will sit back and watch this 'entertainment'. We as a nation are sitting ducks to be knocked out into dust by mere SMS, and not a bullet fired.
This exodus illustrates that we do not have an effective Civil Defence System on ground. Any small disciplined organisation can create absolute chaos by using rumours . Let us see how our district police units worked. Did we have a counter action system on ground to wave away rumours. Why did no DM hold any press conference to deny rumours. Why were the Police chiefs also absent from streets to prevent the human exit from their districts. Was it because no crime was committed?
The people have lost trust in the khaki uniform to be their guardian angels. This is very unfortunate. In six decades we have allowed the police system to only slide down and our words do not carry weight in people's mind. This is a time of trial for our system which is supposed to serve the people.
iv) Migrations:
A point in issue that popped up in discussion forums is the question why at all did so many thousands had to leave their homes in the NE in search of jobs in far off places? Then is it that in their work place they were exploited, and they could visit their homes only once a while at enormous cost of travel and loss of wages? In the 60 years after Independence what have the Governments – at the Centre and State, done to provide employment to the youth of NE? Instead of going into the reasons for this hapless lot to leave their homes, is it just our diversionary tactic to throw the blame on someone else… ?
Migration is an interesting phenomenon when looking at social development. A lot of positives cab be seen when there is movement of people for jobs. Such churning would dissolve firmly held social practices which otherwise we want to eradicate but find it difficult to. Its also an important factor showing more upward mobility of a nation when lots of people opt for migration for economic betterment.
We can't and shouldn't cry down migrations... Greener pastures and aspirations for bettering one's exposure and opportunities for jobs and lifestyles will always remain a motivating factor. There are advantages and disadvantages!
Nobody cried over Bihari migrations when at one stage (...and perhaps still do) they flooded the cities of the country to escape the conditions in their home state (.....just an example - I am not singling out any particular state). Wherever the Biharis went, with their endeavour and intellect they contributed to the development and prosperity of the chosen cities/states - enough to be feared by locals of a Bihari dominance if not Bihari take-over! Giving rise to local goons in the name of partisan interests to become heros and even national power wielders in their quest to oust the outsiders. I don't need to name places where this has happened.
But sticking to the north-east, those of us who served in the north-eastern states know how very clannish the local communities can be in their attitude towards outsiders. But when outside their own local environment/ communities/ and State, they are the friendliest of people. I remember when I was a college student in Bangalore in the '60s some of my best friends were Nagas, Manipuris, Khasis and other north-easterners who flooded Bangalore even in those days for higher studies and in search of class and culture.
As it should be, the north-easterners (and particularly some prominent tribes from the region) have taken full advantage of the tribal concessions and reservations to join the All India and Central Services in large numbers. Whichever be the cadre to which they were/are allocated, I fear at any given point in time a large number of them if not the majority, would be serving in their own state - having wangled a berth back home by hook or by crook even on deputation through local political connections and obvious mismanagement by cadre authorities fanned by reluctance on the part of cadre officers to serve in the north-east... !
In the circumstances, over the last decade or so I have viewed the tendency for youngsters from the north-east moving out for jobs elsewhere in the country - and not necessarily only for studies - as a great positive and something to be encouraged !!!!!!
Shunning their "frog-in-the-well" attitude to life and venturing out of their cocoon comfort zones to take up jobs elsewhere is a wonderful development; which shows their acceptance of and growing confidence in the country which they are part of; something the country could not achieve in the 50-years prior to this decade! Today it is common to find Mizos and Nagas serving as shop assistants and waiters in restaurants - a sight by no stretch of imagination that could be dreamed of earlier!
Hence there is a great stake involved here for the nation - of restoring that confidence - which has been shattered and lost among our north-eastern brethren by the recent conspiracy ingeniously engineered by spreading rumours through the social-network medium.
Zeroing on Police functions, the phenomenon of migration needs to be understood by the police and appropriate response devised. An urgent need is apparent to have better and well thought out strategies to deal with problems of crime arising out of migration, rather than blaming migration for problems. It would be worthwhile to group-think on this issue on social discussion forums, on the current background of the Assam related rumour-mongering on social media.
Do Police need to have real time communication with people on state police websites and twitter and facebook? How useful is using state power to shut down sites etc and demonstrate effectiveness of force?
Police recruitment policies should factor in representation of all significant minorities. NYPD follows this, and Delhi Police at one stage during the 1980s focussed on recruiting from various parts of India - enabling them to present themselves as everyone's police force and getting valuable intelligence resources in the process.
Formation of social bodies and NGOs representing minorities should be encouraged. Leaders who emerge out of such organic growth should be engaged with and recognized.
Localities and public places, including places of worship, frequented by specific minorities should be mapped out and festivals.
IPS officers, who have some minority connection, should be tasked with being 'brand ambassadors' for inclusive policing.
Finally, as one of the senior retired police officers commented on a web discussion forum: "….one wonders why the younger generation is not so assertive to retain a social order around themselves. Is this generation of 'Dum Maro Dum' thinking?"
