Yesterday's 'Big Fight' on NDTV was an offshoot from the Gurgaon violence over the week since Monday 25th in which dramatic pictures on television only of policemen mercilessly beating up factory workers had been depicted. This had incited passions to a pitch for the matter to be discussed even on the floor of the Nation's Parliament where the Government's own coalition partner the Communists, accused the authorities (and the ruling Congress govt) of mishandling the whole issue, and wanting the Congress Govt in Haryana to be dismissed and its chief minister changed.
For the Communists who had a stake in the whole thing, trying to make Trade Union inroads into the labour intensive industrial belt of Gurgaon on the Delhi border, the incident was a god-send… which they used to the hilt to fan adverse sentiments against the police and therewith the demand and discussion on Police Reforms in the newspapers, on all television channels, in some of which my participation was sought.
For the Big Fight on New Delhi Television, I believe it was an unfair panel. Though they had invited the most fiery of them all – Gurudas DasGupta from the Commie ranks, who had been mentor plenipotentiary and agent provocateur for the agitating factory workers and himself gone to town dubbing the police action most brutal, fascist, and so on..... and asked for the chief minister's head; the NDTV had pitted against him two of us – from the police, out of police, whatever…. – that's me, and Kiran Bedi, whom most analysts and viewers necessarily considered to be a formidable team to contend or mess with.
Had I known that Kiran was also called, perhaps I would not have accepted – more perhaps not to be overawed and overshadowed by her popular presence, than for other reasons. But it was too late to withdraw, and I thought let me this time take the whole thing head on, be it DasGupta or be it Bedi (...however silly it may seem), preferring to mentally consider both as adversaries whose combined strength I'd need to counter. As it turned out, despite Kiran's presence, the anchor Vikram Chandra gave me what was viewed by many as the no.1 slot, DasGupta the No.2 and Kiran to come up as rearguard, the No.3 slot. And the strategist that Kiran was, she found me in the attacking mode and on the warpath, and in her own very lucid and articulate manner just picked up strings from where I left, built on them, pontificated in support of what I said – and finally when we emerged after the show, declared "Between u and me Maxwell, we made mince meat of him" – meaning DasGupta was right royally trounced.
I was flooded with calls and sms-es in the bargain, from all over. The recording of the show was on Friday, and the telecast on Saturday 8pm. And Saturday I was flooded with social engagements – starting at KK Jajodia's do for Ambassador Arne Walther the Secretary General of the International Energy Forum (operating from Riyadh – Saudi) and his Indian wife the former Time and CNN India correspondent (very well known to me, even if I didn't really consider her among my friends'circle). The next do last evening was at Peter Hassan's for Geoffery amd Michelle Marginsson, the latter the Dy Australian High Commissioner who after her three year tenure in India is returning to her country. And Geoff sang Bass with me in the Capital City Minstrels.
And the last port of call before I was to return to Gurgaon and home was at Moira and Ambi Singh's at Vasant Vihar, where the dinner was for Noni's visiting sister Essie from Indonesia (a little backgrounder here..... Noni also sings with the Capital City Minstrels. The stunningly attractive fair and tall elegant white-haired lady with mild chinky features who stood out in the front row always. Noni is also very well known to uncle (Brig) Stan, because when he fell in love with his would be wife Dorothy, she was working as a house companion to the then Indonesian Ambassador's daughters here in Delhi, having been recruited and employed straight from Holland. A companion to Noni and Essie, both daughters of this Indonesian Ambassador – who ultimately gave away the bride and walked Dorothy up the aisle when she married Stan).
I could not, amidst all these engagements, be near a TV to watch the 8pm show of the Big Fight and was constantly disturbed at the Jajodia party; and later, with calls pouring in… Among the first ones, was one from Anil Chowdhary, who told me that he found the initial content and my handling of the whole thing so interesting and gripping, that he just rang up Home Minister Shivraj Patil on the RAX and asked him not to miss the Big Fight.
For some idea of the responses and reactions of a cross-section of people from all over who took pains to make contact either during or after the show, here are a few extracts:
"…stupendous! Mum and dad wr wondring wr u were! We must meet. Pls let me know whn ur free" – Juhi Kaul
"Well said, that remark on nobody wanting police reforms is the sad reality" – Suman Dubey
"I'm watching the Big Fight. It's a sweet war" – Seby Fernandes, Goa
"Hi Sir, Good to see u in full flow in the big fight" – Sanjay Pinto from Chennai.
"Good show.... You came out clear" – Alwyn Noronha
"Wow Mack, enjoyed the show. Keep it up! You did a good job. Looking forward to bigger fights. Take Care" – Marita Coelho from Bombay
"Rape of the commie by two 'gentlemen' cops. Fantastic" – Vincy Mathias, Pondicherry.
"Gr8 show, Maxy" – Veronica Peris
"You spoke very well. Congrats" – Saurabh Khosla from Dubai
"Grt show! Wish there are many more Maxys in our country" – Ravi Wahi
Sunday 31 July 2005
Thursday 14 July 2005
How "Emotions" can help....
This is from one of my daughter Indira's friends who subscribes to Wharton knowledge center and saw this paper. He thought it may help her in her work, as well as in her social life. It's about Emotions. Indira found it interesting enough to also share it with me:
Looking to Make a Sale or Get Promoted? Emotions Will Help Determine the Outcome
High emotion contributes to great opera. It does not, however, serve us well when making judgments about others. This is the argument advanced in "Feeling and Believing: The Influence of Emotion on Trust," a new paper by Maurice E. Schweitzer, Wharton professor of operations and information management, and Jennifer Dunn, a PhD student in the department.
The two researchers conducted five experiments to determine the influence of emotional states -- happiness, gratitude, anger, and guilt -- on trust. Each experiment confirmed that incidental emotions (emotions from one situation that influence judgment in a following, unrelated situation) affect how willing we are to trust others. For example, our anger over a speeding ticket is likely to affect how we judge someone later in the day. The researchers conclude that despite feeling we are rational beings who make clear, lucid judgments, in reality we all walk around in a sea of emotions that are likely to influence how we act in both business and social contexts.
The article, recently published in the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, stems from Schweitzer's ongoing interest in negotiation, where trust plays a critical role. Previous research identified trust as a combination of two constructs: one's own propensity to trust and one's knowledge about the other person. "This research suggests that we make a cognitive decision and use reason to decide whether or not to trust someone," notes Schweitzer. "What our research says is that trust is much more labile than that." In other words, trust is a constructed judgment that is influenced by irrelevant information. "The extent to which I do or do not trust you is a function not only of how trusting a person I am and what I know about you, but also a function of irrelevant events that have influenced my emotional state. For example, if I hit a parked car, argued with my spouse, learned that I have to pay a large repair bill (or won an award, had a paper accepted, or saw my stock account grow) beforehand, I would trust you less (or more). The main idea in the paper is that emotions which are irrelevant to the judgment task nevertheless influence trust judgments in predictable ways," Schweitzer says.
He and Dunn demonstrated this through a series of experiments, each one designed to test a different aspect of the "emotions affect trust" theory. In one study, for example, he and his team approached people waiting for trains and asked if they would be willing to take part in a study. They were asked to name a co-worker and then -- after an "emotion induction" phase -- answer a series of questions about that person. In the "emotion induction" phase, participants recounted in writing an incident that made them angry, sad, or happy (depending on which emotion they were assigned). Participants wrote about events like the birth of a child (happiness), the untimely death of a loved one (sadness), or the destructive behavior of a neighbor (anger). After this exercise, participants rated their co-workers on such statements as: "If X promised to copy a presentation for me, s/he would follow through," and "X would never intentionally misrepresent my point of view to others." Results showed that happy participants were significantly more trusting than were sad participants, and sad participants were significantly more trusting than were angry participants. Throughout each of the five studies, the results were the same. "What surprised me most was the magnitude and consistency of the effects," says Schweitzer.
A "Simple Manipulation"
For managers, this study reveals much about human nature, he suggests. "We can easily channel people and direct them to a happy, sad or angry place ... in a relatively short period of time with a relatively simple manipulation." These manipulations can take the form of a short story (e.g., a news story), a short movie clip, or even a short discussion. For example, the best salespeople "don't call on a customer and start with a comment about the stock market dropping or a favorite sports team losing. Instead, they focus attention on something uplifting," like a team making the playoffs or an upcoming holiday.
"In negotiation, we have always known that non-task communication -- discussion that's not directly relevant to the negotiation process -- is important for closing a deal," says Schweitzer. "This research gives us some insight into why it's important and what kinds of things should go into that communication." Specifically, "non-task communication, like telling jokes/stories or talking about sports, can change people's emotional states and make them more (or less) trusting. My advice is to give serious thought to non-task communication. This includes preparing the types of stories you tell and the types of non-task questions you ask. It also includes learning more about a client, such as whether he/she is a huge Red Sox fan or cares a lot about wildlife refuges. Conversely, you should recognize that when a salesperson or someone else engages in a conversation like this, he or she may influence your emotional state and subsequently your 'trust judgment'. The reason you gave someone a large contract may have more to do with how funny the story he told you beforehand was than with his reputation for dependability."
So going in to ask for a promotion or new responsibilities on the job is probably a good time to recount a funny story or ask about your supervisor's golf game, Schweitzer says. The point is to recognize the role that emotions play. Outside events -- such as the rise/fall of IBM stock if your supervisor owns it, or whether his or her child got accepted into a prestigious college -- as well as non-task communication, like telling a funny story, are important for trust judgments.
That's not to say we should never acknowledge problems that occur outside of the work setting, Schweitzer adds. "You have to demonstrate sensitivity." If a colleague is going through a difficult time personally, you should acknowledge it, but not dwell on it. "Our research shows that you can shift people to think about happy things and make them -- literally -- happy."
What Schweitzer and Dunn don't know is how long these incidental emotions last. The research tested people's propensity to trust immediately after the emotion induction (putting people into a happy, sad, or angry mood). Schweitzer is now working on a series of tests to determine the durability of these emotions: Do they last for minutes, hours, days or weeks? The results should help fill out the picture of how emotions affect our judgments.
Being Aware of Your Emotions
A second key finding in the study is that if people are aware of their emotional state, then the emotional state does not generally bleed into their judgments of others. In one study, for example, participants were shown film clips to induce either happiness or anger. Participants in the "happy" group watched a Robin Williams comedy routine, while those in the "anger" group watched a clip from the film Witness, in which teenagers harass an Amish man. After watching the clips, half of those in the "happy" group saw a brief note on screen that read, "Prior research has shown that even short film clips like the ones you have seen can influence people's emotions." The other half saw a blank screen. This was duplicated in the "angry" group. Consistent with the other study, angry participants provided significantly lower trust ratings than happy participants among those who did not receive the warning message. Among those who viewed the warning message, trust levels were about the same.
Again, says Schweitzer, links to the business world are clear, in particular because the results speak directly to the issue of "emotional intelligence," a widely discussed concept in recent years. "Managers and employees alike need to realize that when making decisions, they are in a state that is driven partly by reason, but also partly by emotion," he notes. Taking into account the role of awareness, managers can keep an eye out for employees who are at risk for bringing unrelated emotions to critical decisions. For example, a manager in a law firm may need to pull another lawyer aside and say, "I know case X isn't going well, but case Y is different," or "I know you're going through a difficult divorce, but don't let that cloud your judgment when you go into your negotiations today." Says Schweitzer: "When people recognize the trigger, or source, of their emotions they are less likely to misattribute them. When I realize that I'm angry because of something my spouse did, I am less likely to use that anger in an unrelated judgment. When I am not aware of or thinking about why I am angry, I am more likely to misattribute it."
Unattributed emotions are a problem, he points out, particularly for people working in high-stress, fast-paced jobs, like judges and parole officers, who have to make quick judgments about people. Because they move from one incident to the next without the luxury of time to sit back and gauge their emotions, they are more likely to misattribute emotional states. Again, awareness and correct attribution of emotional states can help manage this process, he suggests.
Based on his work in the field, Schweitzer thinks people conceive of themselves as rational human beings driven by rational thought -- particularly Westerners -- but it's not true. "People undervalue the extent to which emotions influence their judgment," he says. Correctly attributing our emotional states can counter the effects of others who are trying to manipulate our feelings. "Good sales people tell jokes and funny stories; they bring little gifts. What they are trying to do is influence people's emotional states." Recognizing that this person is trying to make you feel good can help separate the good feelings from the decisions at hand. Are you feeling you can trust these new partners and sign on the dotted line because it's a solid deal or because you are ecstatic over your new baby? "This is what we need to be aware of," says Schweitzer.
The highly emotional people in the crowd shouldn't feel too bad, he adds, noting that our quick emotional reactions have served us well for the past 100,000 years. Our ancestors who happened upon a snarling, big-toothed animal were smart to listen to their emotions and run the other way. "Actually, it's only been fairly recently that we can or should override those emotional reactions," he says. In other words, going into battle mode may not be the best response to a large, scary-looking person coming toward you at work. Especially if it's your boss.
From the Current Issue
Looking to Make a Sale or Get Promoted? Emotions Will Help Determine the Outcome
High emotion contributes to great opera. It does not, however, serve us well when making judgments about others. This is the argument advanced in "Feeling and Believing: The Influence of Emotion on Trust," a new paper by Maurice E. Schweitzer, Wharton professor of operations and information management, and Jennifer Dunn, a PhD student in the department.
The two researchers conducted five experiments to determine the influence of emotional states -- happiness, gratitude, anger, and guilt -- on trust. Each experiment confirmed that incidental emotions (emotions from one situation that influence judgment in a following, unrelated situation) affect how willing we are to trust others. For example, our anger over a speeding ticket is likely to affect how we judge someone later in the day. The researchers conclude that despite feeling we are rational beings who make clear, lucid judgments, in reality we all walk around in a sea of emotions that are likely to influence how we act in both business and social contexts.
The article, recently published in the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, stems from Schweitzer's ongoing interest in negotiation, where trust plays a critical role. Previous research identified trust as a combination of two constructs: one's own propensity to trust and one's knowledge about the other person. "This research suggests that we make a cognitive decision and use reason to decide whether or not to trust someone," notes Schweitzer. "What our research says is that trust is much more labile than that." In other words, trust is a constructed judgment that is influenced by irrelevant information. "The extent to which I do or do not trust you is a function not only of how trusting a person I am and what I know about you, but also a function of irrelevant events that have influenced my emotional state. For example, if I hit a parked car, argued with my spouse, learned that I have to pay a large repair bill (or won an award, had a paper accepted, or saw my stock account grow) beforehand, I would trust you less (or more). The main idea in the paper is that emotions which are irrelevant to the judgment task nevertheless influence trust judgments in predictable ways," Schweitzer says.
He and Dunn demonstrated this through a series of experiments, each one designed to test a different aspect of the "emotions affect trust" theory. In one study, for example, he and his team approached people waiting for trains and asked if they would be willing to take part in a study. They were asked to name a co-worker and then -- after an "emotion induction" phase -- answer a series of questions about that person. In the "emotion induction" phase, participants recounted in writing an incident that made them angry, sad, or happy (depending on which emotion they were assigned). Participants wrote about events like the birth of a child (happiness), the untimely death of a loved one (sadness), or the destructive behavior of a neighbor (anger). After this exercise, participants rated their co-workers on such statements as: "If X promised to copy a presentation for me, s/he would follow through," and "X would never intentionally misrepresent my point of view to others." Results showed that happy participants were significantly more trusting than were sad participants, and sad participants were significantly more trusting than were angry participants. Throughout each of the five studies, the results were the same. "What surprised me most was the magnitude and consistency of the effects," says Schweitzer.
A "Simple Manipulation"
For managers, this study reveals much about human nature, he suggests. "We can easily channel people and direct them to a happy, sad or angry place ... in a relatively short period of time with a relatively simple manipulation." These manipulations can take the form of a short story (e.g., a news story), a short movie clip, or even a short discussion. For example, the best salespeople "don't call on a customer and start with a comment about the stock market dropping or a favorite sports team losing. Instead, they focus attention on something uplifting," like a team making the playoffs or an upcoming holiday.
"In negotiation, we have always known that non-task communication -- discussion that's not directly relevant to the negotiation process -- is important for closing a deal," says Schweitzer. "This research gives us some insight into why it's important and what kinds of things should go into that communication." Specifically, "non-task communication, like telling jokes/stories or talking about sports, can change people's emotional states and make them more (or less) trusting. My advice is to give serious thought to non-task communication. This includes preparing the types of stories you tell and the types of non-task questions you ask. It also includes learning more about a client, such as whether he/she is a huge Red Sox fan or cares a lot about wildlife refuges. Conversely, you should recognize that when a salesperson or someone else engages in a conversation like this, he or she may influence your emotional state and subsequently your 'trust judgment'. The reason you gave someone a large contract may have more to do with how funny the story he told you beforehand was than with his reputation for dependability."
So going in to ask for a promotion or new responsibilities on the job is probably a good time to recount a funny story or ask about your supervisor's golf game, Schweitzer says. The point is to recognize the role that emotions play. Outside events -- such as the rise/fall of IBM stock if your supervisor owns it, or whether his or her child got accepted into a prestigious college -- as well as non-task communication, like telling a funny story, are important for trust judgments.
That's not to say we should never acknowledge problems that occur outside of the work setting, Schweitzer adds. "You have to demonstrate sensitivity." If a colleague is going through a difficult time personally, you should acknowledge it, but not dwell on it. "Our research shows that you can shift people to think about happy things and make them -- literally -- happy."
What Schweitzer and Dunn don't know is how long these incidental emotions last. The research tested people's propensity to trust immediately after the emotion induction (putting people into a happy, sad, or angry mood). Schweitzer is now working on a series of tests to determine the durability of these emotions: Do they last for minutes, hours, days or weeks? The results should help fill out the picture of how emotions affect our judgments.
Being Aware of Your Emotions
A second key finding in the study is that if people are aware of their emotional state, then the emotional state does not generally bleed into their judgments of others. In one study, for example, participants were shown film clips to induce either happiness or anger. Participants in the "happy" group watched a Robin Williams comedy routine, while those in the "anger" group watched a clip from the film Witness, in which teenagers harass an Amish man. After watching the clips, half of those in the "happy" group saw a brief note on screen that read, "Prior research has shown that even short film clips like the ones you have seen can influence people's emotions." The other half saw a blank screen. This was duplicated in the "angry" group. Consistent with the other study, angry participants provided significantly lower trust ratings than happy participants among those who did not receive the warning message. Among those who viewed the warning message, trust levels were about the same.
Again, says Schweitzer, links to the business world are clear, in particular because the results speak directly to the issue of "emotional intelligence," a widely discussed concept in recent years. "Managers and employees alike need to realize that when making decisions, they are in a state that is driven partly by reason, but also partly by emotion," he notes. Taking into account the role of awareness, managers can keep an eye out for employees who are at risk for bringing unrelated emotions to critical decisions. For example, a manager in a law firm may need to pull another lawyer aside and say, "I know case X isn't going well, but case Y is different," or "I know you're going through a difficult divorce, but don't let that cloud your judgment when you go into your negotiations today." Says Schweitzer: "When people recognize the trigger, or source, of their emotions they are less likely to misattribute them. When I realize that I'm angry because of something my spouse did, I am less likely to use that anger in an unrelated judgment. When I am not aware of or thinking about why I am angry, I am more likely to misattribute it."
Unattributed emotions are a problem, he points out, particularly for people working in high-stress, fast-paced jobs, like judges and parole officers, who have to make quick judgments about people. Because they move from one incident to the next without the luxury of time to sit back and gauge their emotions, they are more likely to misattribute emotional states. Again, awareness and correct attribution of emotional states can help manage this process, he suggests.
Based on his work in the field, Schweitzer thinks people conceive of themselves as rational human beings driven by rational thought -- particularly Westerners -- but it's not true. "People undervalue the extent to which emotions influence their judgment," he says. Correctly attributing our emotional states can counter the effects of others who are trying to manipulate our feelings. "Good sales people tell jokes and funny stories; they bring little gifts. What they are trying to do is influence people's emotional states." Recognizing that this person is trying to make you feel good can help separate the good feelings from the decisions at hand. Are you feeling you can trust these new partners and sign on the dotted line because it's a solid deal or because you are ecstatic over your new baby? "This is what we need to be aware of," says Schweitzer.
The highly emotional people in the crowd shouldn't feel too bad, he adds, noting that our quick emotional reactions have served us well for the past 100,000 years. Our ancestors who happened upon a snarling, big-toothed animal were smart to listen to their emotions and run the other way. "Actually, it's only been fairly recently that we can or should override those emotional reactions," he says. In other words, going into battle mode may not be the best response to a large, scary-looking person coming toward you at work. Especially if it's your boss.
From the Current Issue
Wednesday 15 June 2005
An Indian road to happiness
An Indian road to happiness
INTERNATIONAL HERALD TRIBUNE
15/06/2005
By Andy Mukherjee
Consumers in India are in no mood to stop splurging, even as shoppers elsewhere begin to feel jittery. After surveying more than 21,000 shoppers in 38 markets, the New York-based researcher AC Nielsen on Monday ranked India at the top of its newly created list of consumer confidence.
Only 7 percent of the Indian consumers surveyed by Nielsen in May said they were finding it difficult to make ends meet, compared with 25 percent in North America and 13 percent in Europe who said they had no cash to spare.
India's score of 127 makes it a nation of "happy people," along with China, which has a confidence index of 108, Nelsen said in a press release issued from Singapore.
Optimism among Indian consumers compares with a rather gloomy score of 98 in Britain, 96 in the United States and a global average of 92.
Investors want to know how long the consumer frenzy will last. India's retail stocks are red hot. Shares of Pantaloon Retail India, which owns the Big Bazaar department stores, have more than tripled in the past year.
Shoppers' Stop, India's biggest retail chain, sold stock to investors at 238 rupees, or $5.45, per share last month. The shares are now trading above 388 rupees - a 63 percent gain for investors.
Retail is the most obvious sign of growing urbanization and affluence in India.
Investors who have put their money on the nation's prowess in computer software have now turned their attention to homegrown retail chains where the country's one million young engineers and call-center employees are spending their rising wages on everything from designer clothes and children's toys to kitchen appliances and DVDs.
"Any investment manager on a work trip to India makes it a point to visit a store like Big Bazaar or Shoppers' Stop," Aadil Ebrahim, an analyst and fund manager at Bowen Capital Management in Hong Kong, said Monday in an interview.
"He comes out so impressed, he gets into the car and immediately starts calling his trader in New York or London, telling him to buy a piece of the action," Ebrahim said.
Provogue India, an eight-year-old apparel manufacturer, runs its own stores, some of which double up as restaurants in the evenings. The company, which is selling stock to the public for the first time, is asking as much as 150 rupees, or 25 times its earnings per share.
That's hardly cheap. Shares of Wal-Mart Stores, the world's largest retailer, are trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of about 20.
However, the Indian government has yet to allow global retailers like Wal-Mart, Carrefour and Ikea into the local market. So the only way investors can profit from India's retail boom is to buy shares in companies like Provogue, which has seen 10 times as much demand for its shares than it offered to sell.
Some of the penchant for owning shares in local Indian retailers may ebb once the government of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh allows bigger overseas competitors to open stores in the country. Wal-Mart last month said that it would consider investing in India, where it sees "a bright future for retailing."
On the other hand, if global retailers are allowed to buy stakes in existing Indian companies, share prices of local retailers may rise even more.
Unless global investors have a crisis of faith in the Indian economy, the local currency and interest rates should stay supportive of spending.
India attracted $50 million in equity investments in the week that ended June 8 from emerging market funds, according to the Cambridge, Massachusetts-based Emerging Portfolio Fund Research. That compares with $38 million of inflows into Brazil and an $11 million outflow from China in the same week.
A one-year consumer loan in India is available at an interest rate of 7 percent. Five years ago, financing was twice as expensive. The Indian rupee is at 43.55 to the U.S. dollar, almost 10 percent stronger than it was in September 2001.
Moreover, India has only now begun to enjoy the so-called demographic dividend. Three out of five Indians are 15 to 64 years old, a percentage that is projected to keep rising beyond 2035. As more people in the economy work to support fewer dependents, discretionary consumer spending may increase manifold from the current $178 billion a year.
Credit card debt is on the rise in India, though it is nowhere near the exorbitant level reached in South Korea when a spending boom went bust in 2003.
Globally, the big concerns of consumers at the moment are: the state of the economy, personal health and job security. Those anxieties are rather muted in India, where nine out of 10 consumers surveyed by Nielsen said they were optimistic about their job prospects in the next 12 months.
Valuations of India's retailing companies may indeed be too high. The Indian consumer, however, is nowhere near the top. It looks like the "happy people" can stay that way - happy for now.
International Media
Ministry of External Affairs, New Delhi
))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))
Response recd to the subject mail.
Date: Wednesday, June 22, 2005 10:58 am
Interestingly, it is only "consumers" who were interviewed by Nielsen.
I am sure the rural poor were not interviewed. India has around 400
million people below the poverty line and so even if the 100 million
consumers are feeling confident, that says absolutely nothing about
India as a country.
At the same time, however, we are progressing and there is a general
sense of "India Shining". At the moment there are only 126 countries
in the world that have a higher standard of living than we do.
Coincidentally, our Human Development ranking is the same as our
happiness coefficient - both are 127. But in Human Development it's a
ranking, not a value.
Ask the same consumers if they are "confident" of finding a parking
spot in Shoppers Stop. Large outlets have changed the face of
Bangalore and have greatly increased the concentration of traffic on a
few selected roads. The whole city is breaking under the strain while
the owners and shareholders mint their millions.
Sorry about that but I'm a socialist by conviction! Thanks for the
article anyway because it's interesting to know what ideas people like
Andy Mukherjee have. I'm surprised that only 10 consumers in India
were interviewed about job security. And we should also remember that
for every consumer who can afford to go to Shopper's Stop, there's
around 9 people who can't even dream of it. And for every consumer who
feels confident, there are probably around 49 people who aren't
consumers, and nobody asks them if they're confident or not.
))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))
INTERNATIONAL HERALD TRIBUNE
15/06/2005
By Andy Mukherjee
Consumers in India are in no mood to stop splurging, even as shoppers elsewhere begin to feel jittery. After surveying more than 21,000 shoppers in 38 markets, the New York-based researcher AC Nielsen on Monday ranked India at the top of its newly created list of consumer confidence.
Only 7 percent of the Indian consumers surveyed by Nielsen in May said they were finding it difficult to make ends meet, compared with 25 percent in North America and 13 percent in Europe who said they had no cash to spare.
India's score of 127 makes it a nation of "happy people," along with China, which has a confidence index of 108, Nelsen said in a press release issued from Singapore.
Optimism among Indian consumers compares with a rather gloomy score of 98 in Britain, 96 in the United States and a global average of 92.
Investors want to know how long the consumer frenzy will last. India's retail stocks are red hot. Shares of Pantaloon Retail India, which owns the Big Bazaar department stores, have more than tripled in the past year.
Shoppers' Stop, India's biggest retail chain, sold stock to investors at 238 rupees, or $5.45, per share last month. The shares are now trading above 388 rupees - a 63 percent gain for investors.
Retail is the most obvious sign of growing urbanization and affluence in India.
Investors who have put their money on the nation's prowess in computer software have now turned their attention to homegrown retail chains where the country's one million young engineers and call-center employees are spending their rising wages on everything from designer clothes and children's toys to kitchen appliances and DVDs.
"Any investment manager on a work trip to India makes it a point to visit a store like Big Bazaar or Shoppers' Stop," Aadil Ebrahim, an analyst and fund manager at Bowen Capital Management in Hong Kong, said Monday in an interview.
"He comes out so impressed, he gets into the car and immediately starts calling his trader in New York or London, telling him to buy a piece of the action," Ebrahim said.
Provogue India, an eight-year-old apparel manufacturer, runs its own stores, some of which double up as restaurants in the evenings. The company, which is selling stock to the public for the first time, is asking as much as 150 rupees, or 25 times its earnings per share.
That's hardly cheap. Shares of Wal-Mart Stores, the world's largest retailer, are trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of about 20.
However, the Indian government has yet to allow global retailers like Wal-Mart, Carrefour and Ikea into the local market. So the only way investors can profit from India's retail boom is to buy shares in companies like Provogue, which has seen 10 times as much demand for its shares than it offered to sell.
Some of the penchant for owning shares in local Indian retailers may ebb once the government of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh allows bigger overseas competitors to open stores in the country. Wal-Mart last month said that it would consider investing in India, where it sees "a bright future for retailing."
On the other hand, if global retailers are allowed to buy stakes in existing Indian companies, share prices of local retailers may rise even more.
Unless global investors have a crisis of faith in the Indian economy, the local currency and interest rates should stay supportive of spending.
India attracted $50 million in equity investments in the week that ended June 8 from emerging market funds, according to the Cambridge, Massachusetts-based Emerging Portfolio Fund Research. That compares with $38 million of inflows into Brazil and an $11 million outflow from China in the same week.
A one-year consumer loan in India is available at an interest rate of 7 percent. Five years ago, financing was twice as expensive. The Indian rupee is at 43.55 to the U.S. dollar, almost 10 percent stronger than it was in September 2001.
Moreover, India has only now begun to enjoy the so-called demographic dividend. Three out of five Indians are 15 to 64 years old, a percentage that is projected to keep rising beyond 2035. As more people in the economy work to support fewer dependents, discretionary consumer spending may increase manifold from the current $178 billion a year.
Credit card debt is on the rise in India, though it is nowhere near the exorbitant level reached in South Korea when a spending boom went bust in 2003.
Globally, the big concerns of consumers at the moment are: the state of the economy, personal health and job security. Those anxieties are rather muted in India, where nine out of 10 consumers surveyed by Nielsen said they were optimistic about their job prospects in the next 12 months.
Valuations of India's retailing companies may indeed be too high. The Indian consumer, however, is nowhere near the top. It looks like the "happy people" can stay that way - happy for now.
International Media
Ministry of External Affairs, New Delhi
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Response recd to the subject mail.
Date: Wednesday, June 22, 2005 10:58 am
Interestingly, it is only "consumers" who were interviewed by Nielsen.
I am sure the rural poor were not interviewed. India has around 400
million people below the poverty line and so even if the 100 million
consumers are feeling confident, that says absolutely nothing about
India as a country.
At the same time, however, we are progressing and there is a general
sense of "India Shining". At the moment there are only 126 countries
in the world that have a higher standard of living than we do.
Coincidentally, our Human Development ranking is the same as our
happiness coefficient - both are 127. But in Human Development it's a
ranking, not a value.
Ask the same consumers if they are "confident" of finding a parking
spot in Shoppers Stop. Large outlets have changed the face of
Bangalore and have greatly increased the concentration of traffic on a
few selected roads. The whole city is breaking under the strain while
the owners and shareholders mint their millions.
Sorry about that but I'm a socialist by conviction! Thanks for the
article anyway because it's interesting to know what ideas people like
Andy Mukherjee have. I'm surprised that only 10 consumers in India
were interviewed about job security. And we should also remember that
for every consumer who can afford to go to Shopper's Stop, there's
around 9 people who can't even dream of it. And for every consumer who
feels confident, there are probably around 49 people who aren't
consumers, and nobody asks them if they're confident or not.
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Tuesday 22 March 2005
Criminals in Parliament
By Maxwell Pereira
How disgusting and disgraceful it was for us to watch on our ‘idiot box’ screens on Monday 21 March, the scenes of someone accused of murder and notoriously known to be a criminal involved in many more heinous crimes, take oath in the nation’s Parliament as an honourable Member! Rajesh Ranjan alias Pappu Yadav – a person who wielded influence and flaunted muscle power from within the jail where he was incarcerated, by holding durbars and violating every rule and regulation in the jail manual. This had warranted the Supreme Court of India to transfer him to Delhi’s Tihar jail, so that distance and better supervision here could control and negate his propensity to rig the impending poll, even from within Patna’s Beur jail.
It is the very same Apex Court that finds its hands tied then, to permit this individual his right to go to Parliament and take oath as a Member, five months after being eligible to do so, because he has been duly elected by the voters of Madhepura – his constituency in Bihar. To represent them and be part of the august body that guides and determines the destinies of the people, and makes laws for us all to respect and obey.
Duly elected! ….yes, the very same argument that we have presented to the United States to justify our protest at their ‘insulting’ us by denying Narendar Modi a visa to visit their country. The man denounced by our own National Human Rights Commission, and scores of others, as responsible for the failure of State agencies functioning under him in that not-to-be-remembered hoary-past-of-Godhra-related-history of 2002-Gujarat, to protect the fundamental rights of sections of its people!
What is it that makes us people of India, ‘duly’ elect ‘such’ people to represent us! Are we Indians as a whole a criminal minded people, devoid of scruples with no actual sense for the right from the wrong? Or do we cherish a ‘warped’ sense of what is ‘right’ which makes no sense to the majority of humankind! How and why is it that we make heroes of our criminals and law-breakers?
Never in the history of 58 years of our Independence have I known such unprecedented expressed desire of a people for President’s Rule – as was witnessed recently, when Central rule was imposed on Bihar consequent to the imbroglio and electoral stalemate that followed the state assembly elections.
Then it took President’s rule, for the frustrated Patna High Court to reveal to all that 20,000 people with non-bailable warrants of arrest against them are roaming about without fear of the law. Even in the run up to these elections, the state was plagued with kidnappings the likes of Kishlay Kaushal which in effect merely highlighted to all what we already knew – the actual deplorable state of affairs there.
Why is it that Bihar police could not arrest these so called ‘absonders’ and come down heavily on all those kidnappers and extortionists whose free run had forced the Bihar Chapter of the Indian Medical Association to petition the court for protection to its members targeted by these criminals? Is it because many of these culprits belonged to the party that ruled the state brazenly and even managed ministerial berths to some in the state and at the centre?
When a former police chief in this state fell out with his chief minister not too long ago, he spared nothing to expose the politico-criminals and declare that criminal content among politicians had led to a criminal-police nexus operating hand in glove. That all kidnappings and most murders are committed under full protection of the police and assurance that no action will follow. Reports indicate, around 80,000 people were killed and another 40,000 subjected to kidnapping and extortion in the past decade and a half – all linked to less than a dozen persons running gangs 15 to 200 in strength, who kidnap, murder and organize lootings.
It is this pervading sense of insecurity consequent to the unabated spiralling crime over the years, which has resulted in the people welcoming the President’s rule. Battling crime on priority, is what the people expect, and are clamouring for. Not mere lip service from politicians both in the State and the Centre who did nothing about it all these years.
Yesterday, I had a visitor from Bihar – Dubey my old trusted retainer, who had cooked for the family and been the major-domo around the house for long. Like lakhs of Biharis, he too had come to Delhi to seek his fortune, raised a family and married off his children, all through honest earnings through an autorickshaw for which we had stood guarantee. He returned to his village in Arrah, when elders left behind departed to the nether world. Relief writ large on his face, he told me there is now a silver lining on the horizon. God appears to be smiling on Bihar finally to remove people’s woes, he said. President’s rule has brought hope to his eyes.
It is distressing at the same time, to also read reports on the cynicism that is expressed in certain quarters: That President’s rule is not forever. The crime syndicates and their politician-police patrons have only to bide their time and lie low for a while. So the challenge before the Bihar Governor is not only to stop crime, but to wipe out criminals so that they never return. This, only by arresting all those 20,000 roaming around with non-bailable warrants of arrest against them, and a firm resolve to investigate and prosecute each and every case pending against them, to break once and for all the unholy nexus that did not let the hands of law reach them.
950 words
22.03.2005: Copyright © Maxwell Pereira: 60 Ashoka Road, New Delhi-110001.
The author is available at http://www. maxwellpereira.com; mfjpkamath@gmail.com
published in the Delhi Mid-Day on Wednesday, 23 Mar 2005
Comments
22 March 2005: Arati Walia
What a sad situation! Incredible criminal turbulence in Bihar allowed to prosper indefinitely under an illiterate Chief Minister and her goon-ish husband, now a Union Minister for the Railways whose only claim to fame has been the `kulhar's for tea' !!
And Gujarat and Modi... and Hindutva and the RSS and LK Advani. And our sqeaky clean PM has to defend the right of Modi to go to the US. You are right ! What is our collective consciousness ? A bit criminal, a bit self centered.
22 March 2005: Arati & Vijay Kaul
Good reading..Agree with your views.
22 March 2005: Bert Naik
Thank you for a great article.
I appreciate your courage in writing such articles.
25 March 2005: Hero Vaz
Good one. The seamy side of politics and of governments - central and state - has reached its nadir. You should write one on what changes are required in Election Law to make Parliament a clean institution that the people can respect.
26 March 2005: ARUN BHAGAT
Good article. Keep it up.
28 March 2005: assumpta D'souza
Those elements, part of our Parliment, like life: I do fear,being so brash & dare-devilish. They imagine they can get away with literally anything.
1 April 2005: admiral johnny johnson
Enjoyed reading your article. Would be indeed very happy to continue receving your views which I find frank, precise and thought provoking.
We have been very servile in accepting what our "netas" chose to dish out. I am sure people like you have the capability to usher in a change for the better.
2 May 2005: Ashwani Kumar Aggarwal
Read your article with interest. I could not write earlier due to some unavoidable reasons,we all are responsible and party for this, the makers of law and ruling the country are criminals and illiterate MP's many of them who don't even know the abc of law.
It's difficult to survive for an honest law abiding citizen.
Can I forward your article to my friends - some of them are High Court Judge?
How disgusting and disgraceful it was for us to watch on our ‘idiot box’ screens on Monday 21 March, the scenes of someone accused of murder and notoriously known to be a criminal involved in many more heinous crimes, take oath in the nation’s Parliament as an honourable Member! Rajesh Ranjan alias Pappu Yadav – a person who wielded influence and flaunted muscle power from within the jail where he was incarcerated, by holding durbars and violating every rule and regulation in the jail manual. This had warranted the Supreme Court of India to transfer him to Delhi’s Tihar jail, so that distance and better supervision here could control and negate his propensity to rig the impending poll, even from within Patna’s Beur jail.
It is the very same Apex Court that finds its hands tied then, to permit this individual his right to go to Parliament and take oath as a Member, five months after being eligible to do so, because he has been duly elected by the voters of Madhepura – his constituency in Bihar. To represent them and be part of the august body that guides and determines the destinies of the people, and makes laws for us all to respect and obey.
Duly elected! ….yes, the very same argument that we have presented to the United States to justify our protest at their ‘insulting’ us by denying Narendar Modi a visa to visit their country. The man denounced by our own National Human Rights Commission, and scores of others, as responsible for the failure of State agencies functioning under him in that not-to-be-remembered hoary-past-of-Godhra-related-history of 2002-Gujarat, to protect the fundamental rights of sections of its people!
What is it that makes us people of India, ‘duly’ elect ‘such’ people to represent us! Are we Indians as a whole a criminal minded people, devoid of scruples with no actual sense for the right from the wrong? Or do we cherish a ‘warped’ sense of what is ‘right’ which makes no sense to the majority of humankind! How and why is it that we make heroes of our criminals and law-breakers?
Never in the history of 58 years of our Independence have I known such unprecedented expressed desire of a people for President’s Rule – as was witnessed recently, when Central rule was imposed on Bihar consequent to the imbroglio and electoral stalemate that followed the state assembly elections.
Then it took President’s rule, for the frustrated Patna High Court to reveal to all that 20,000 people with non-bailable warrants of arrest against them are roaming about without fear of the law. Even in the run up to these elections, the state was plagued with kidnappings the likes of Kishlay Kaushal which in effect merely highlighted to all what we already knew – the actual deplorable state of affairs there.
Why is it that Bihar police could not arrest these so called ‘absonders’ and come down heavily on all those kidnappers and extortionists whose free run had forced the Bihar Chapter of the Indian Medical Association to petition the court for protection to its members targeted by these criminals? Is it because many of these culprits belonged to the party that ruled the state brazenly and even managed ministerial berths to some in the state and at the centre?
When a former police chief in this state fell out with his chief minister not too long ago, he spared nothing to expose the politico-criminals and declare that criminal content among politicians had led to a criminal-police nexus operating hand in glove. That all kidnappings and most murders are committed under full protection of the police and assurance that no action will follow. Reports indicate, around 80,000 people were killed and another 40,000 subjected to kidnapping and extortion in the past decade and a half – all linked to less than a dozen persons running gangs 15 to 200 in strength, who kidnap, murder and organize lootings.
It is this pervading sense of insecurity consequent to the unabated spiralling crime over the years, which has resulted in the people welcoming the President’s rule. Battling crime on priority, is what the people expect, and are clamouring for. Not mere lip service from politicians both in the State and the Centre who did nothing about it all these years.
Yesterday, I had a visitor from Bihar – Dubey my old trusted retainer, who had cooked for the family and been the major-domo around the house for long. Like lakhs of Biharis, he too had come to Delhi to seek his fortune, raised a family and married off his children, all through honest earnings through an autorickshaw for which we had stood guarantee. He returned to his village in Arrah, when elders left behind departed to the nether world. Relief writ large on his face, he told me there is now a silver lining on the horizon. God appears to be smiling on Bihar finally to remove people’s woes, he said. President’s rule has brought hope to his eyes.
It is distressing at the same time, to also read reports on the cynicism that is expressed in certain quarters: That President’s rule is not forever. The crime syndicates and their politician-police patrons have only to bide their time and lie low for a while. So the challenge before the Bihar Governor is not only to stop crime, but to wipe out criminals so that they never return. This, only by arresting all those 20,000 roaming around with non-bailable warrants of arrest against them, and a firm resolve to investigate and prosecute each and every case pending against them, to break once and for all the unholy nexus that did not let the hands of law reach them.
950 words
22.03.2005: Copyright © Maxwell Pereira: 60 Ashoka Road, New Delhi-110001.
The author is available at http://www. maxwellpereira.com; mfjpkamath@gmail.com
published in the Delhi Mid-Day on Wednesday, 23 Mar 2005
Comments
22 March 2005: Arati Walia
What a sad situation! Incredible criminal turbulence in Bihar allowed to prosper indefinitely under an illiterate Chief Minister and her goon-ish husband, now a Union Minister for the Railways whose only claim to fame has been the `kulhar's for tea' !!
And Gujarat and Modi... and Hindutva and the RSS and LK Advani. And our sqeaky clean PM has to defend the right of Modi to go to the US. You are right ! What is our collective consciousness ? A bit criminal, a bit self centered.
22 March 2005: Arati & Vijay Kaul
Good reading..Agree with your views.
22 March 2005: Bert Naik
Thank you for a great article.
I appreciate your courage in writing such articles.
25 March 2005: Hero Vaz
Good one. The seamy side of politics and of governments - central and state - has reached its nadir. You should write one on what changes are required in Election Law to make Parliament a clean institution that the people can respect.
26 March 2005: ARUN BHAGAT
Good article. Keep it up.
28 March 2005: assumpta D'souza
Those elements, part of our Parliment, like life: I do fear,being so brash & dare-devilish. They imagine they can get away with literally anything.
1 April 2005: admiral johnny johnson
Enjoyed reading your article. Would be indeed very happy to continue receving your views which I find frank, precise and thought provoking.
We have been very servile in accepting what our "netas" chose to dish out. I am sure people like you have the capability to usher in a change for the better.
2 May 2005: Ashwani Kumar Aggarwal
Read your article with interest. I could not write earlier due to some unavoidable reasons,we all are responsible and party for this, the makers of law and ruling the country are criminals and illiterate MP's many of them who don't even know the abc of law.
It's difficult to survive for an honest law abiding citizen.
Can I forward your article to my friends - some of them are High Court Judge?
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